In the last 100
years, we have tended to elect governors and senators from politically
important parts of the country…California, Texas, and New England. We have
never elected a man coming strictly from the private sector with no political experience.
For example, Ronald Reagan was a private
citizen when he was became his party’s nominee in 1980, but he had been a
Governor of California. So, as much as the media like to trot out the occasional
successful businessman (think Herman Cain, Steve Forbes, Ross Perot, and Donald
Trump) for their ten seconds of fame, these people don’t stand a chance. Sorry to
Dr. Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mark Everson and Donald Trump. The exit is THAT
way, folks.
We’ve only elected two men directly from the House of Representatives,
one was the extraordinary Lincoln and the other, Garfield, was his party’s compromise
candidate and even that was nearly 140 years ago. Goodbye, Rep. Peter King.
Then there are the “tainted goods” candidates. People who
have run before and couldn’t attract enough support to get their party’s
nomination the first time around.
Ronald Reagan in 1976 is one extraordinary exception, the
GOP selected a sitting President as it’s nominee, normally not a bad move, but
in the aftermath of Watergate, no Republican could have won. After Jimmy Carter
proved what a nice guy from a small state can do as President, we were glad to
see Mr. Reagan’s return and the tainted good rule was ignored.
As for the current class of hopefuls, if they couldn’t get their
party’s nomination the last time, they aren’t likely to have much success the
second time around or, more loosely said, yesterday’ leftover hash, is seldom as
good when reheated. No one of Reagan’s timber is present among the current
field of hopefuls so farewell to Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, John
Kasich (withdrew before the primaries in 2000) and Jim Gilmore (withdrew before
the first primary in 2008.) Sorry Guys.
Lindsay Graham is viewed by many as too middle of the road
to appeal to the God and Guns crowd. He comes from South Carolina and while he
might actually carry that state in the primaries, he can’t survive much further
than that. He does come with a few political skeletons in his closet. He has
been faulted in the past for certain misleading points in previous campaigns. A
lifelong bachelor, he once appeared with a nice lady and a small child in a
campaign ad speaking of family values, as I recall. It later came out the woman
was his sister and the child his nephew. Nothing wrong in that, but as there
was no mention of exactly who they were, this was viewed by many as misleading.
He also has come under fire for certain parts of his military service. There
seem to be some question regarding claims he might have made of being a Gulf
War veteran, though as a National Guardsman he never deployed overseas. Hmmm, no
chance at success in the race but, again, perhaps a cabinet post in the administration
of the nominee? Nope. He brings little of value to the table for any of the
other candidates to take a chance on.
Rand Paul declined to run and endorsed his father Ron Paul. Of
course, Ron Paul’s ideas were, shall we say, not mainstream. Paul the younger was
between a rock and a hard place as they say…he didn’t have the courage to back
someone more moderate but then who wants to vote for someone who wouldn’t vote
for his dad? The baggage plus the fact he comes from a small and too
influential state doesn’t help. So long Mr. Paul!
Wisconsin’s governor Scott Walker has been mentioned, though
I can’t see why. Walker’s political career in the cheese state has been
contentious to say the least. If he has had to fight so hard to lead a state that
gets hardly a look in the Electoral College, why are we wasting time even discussing
him? Adios, Governor Walker!
Bobby Jindal seems a nice guy, but Louisiana isn’t a
political powerhouse. Jindal has previously declined to run which tends not to
encourage supporters and then endorsed Rick Perry for president in 2008. Sorry
Bobby, maybe a cabinet post?
While George Pataki and Chris Christie are popular governors
of New York and New Jersey, respectively, neither have the ability to win the South
and Texas as long as other candidates more palatable to the southern tastes like
Bush, Cruz or Rubio are in the race.
And then there were three. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Marco
Rubio. Cruz and Rubio have a few things going against them both are junior
senators and the GOP has made an issue of President Obama’s position as a junior
senator in the past, so count on opponents in the GOP and Democratic party to
make this an issue. Cruz is also little too far right to be acceptable to all
echelons of the GOP. Cruz also has very close ties to the Bush family and
served in W’s administration, so he can’t afford to play the nasty card with
Jeb.
Rubio’s youth is no asset. Like Kennedy, he has lots of glam appeal for
the cameras, but has a very scant political resume’. Could he be another JFK in the offing? Possibly, but the odds are he's about as good as all the others would be with such limited experience. No Mr. Rubio's time is not now. Due to Florida law, he can’t
run for President and seek re-election to his Senate seat. If he stays in the
race and loses, look for him to run for Florida Governor next time around and
to run again for president once he has built a resume’. As they used to say in vaudeville "Big round of applause ladies and gentlemen, he’ll be back later in
the program."
So in the end,
barring any nasty skeletons in the closet, it’s Jeb Bush’s primary race to lose
and as Hillary Clinton belongs in the Democrat’s own group of tainted
candidates from past elections, she won’t be able to unify her party with anything like the
kind of universal support she’ll need in the General Election.
On November 9th,
2016, when the dust of the previous evening's activity has settled, a new catch phrase, “Bush 45,” will be added to the annals of American politics.
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