David and Goliath: An Encore Performance.

     Three Israeli civilians have died at the hands of a few Hamas gunman armed with Soviet-era surplus and perhaps a few Iranian missiles of indeterminate quality.  Over 100 Palestinians have died when highly trained personnel piloting some of the world’s finest combat jets have directed air to ground missiles at them with pin-point accuracy.  The country these pilots represent is currently protected by the Iron Dome Missile defense system, a high-tech program with each battery costing tens of millions of dollars. Not that price tag creates any kind of financial hardship for the Jerusalem government as the Iron Dome is funded by the United States. Meanwhile, the Israeli Army is massing on the border of Gaza; armed with tanks, self-propelled guns, and Seraph (Apache) attack helicopters.

    I am no lover of Hamas, but Israel’s attacks on Gaza under the pretense of self-defense and the build-up on the border is a bit like Schwarzenegger attacking a heart patient who gave him a nasty look. The response has not been proportionate to the threat.  News that the peace talks that include the UN Secretary General are ongoing and that the US has now decided to have a hand in them is encouraging. With any luck, we have seen the worst of the destruction and a cease-fire can be brokered.  However, we cannot expect a lasting peace unless the Israeli government can come to terms with its deep-rooted fears and allow statehood for Palestine. Until then, simply acknowledging the basic human rights of the people of Gaza would be enough.

Gaza Peace Talks Continue as Israel Continues to Rule Out Ground Invasion.

The Election to Watch

      Obama's re-election is yesterday's news. The election with even greater and perhaps more far-reaching implications is the one in Beijing. The new leadership in China will preside over the era when China's economy will outstrip that of the US and it's emergence as a formidable military power will become a consideration in all foreign policy matters the West may face in the next generation. Some believe that the importance of the increase in China's influence and it's military potential amount are over-rated and they are but a hollow threat like the Soviets turned out to be. However, the wise man will realize that he era of the sleeping dragon is almost over.
    

China Prepares For Power Handover, But Reverberations Will be Felt Worldwide.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/world/asia/aiming-for-top-xi-jinping-forged-ties-early-in-china.html?hpw

Elite and Deft, Xi Aimed High Early in China
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/world/asia/aiming-for-top-xi-jinping-forged-ties-early-in-china.html?hpw

China's First Aircraft Carrier Enters Service
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19710040

Running Low on Tea? Pass The Moonshine!

     The last two presidential candidates were too moderate to appeal to the God, Guts, and Guns set, while their choices in running mates was, (How can I say this?) uninspired. So now, in the wake of defeat, many of the well-balanced, intellectual banjo-wielding voters who make up the right wing of the GOP have decided to take the most rational, logical step and advocate secession. Of course, the point that a state may not secede was established a few years ago in a wholly insignificant affray that resulted in the deaths of over half a million people. This was not a well-reported event, few papers picked up the story, and I understand why those advocating secession now might have missed it.

      During the campaign, a colleague was receiving emails from someone associated with the GOP urging him to vote for right-wing ideas. After the election, he received another email from the same source. Addressed  “Dear Fellow Republicans, Conservatives, Constitutionalists, and other Patriotic Americans," the message was, not surprisingly, critical of Mr. Obama's ideas about health care, urged readers to join a neo-confederate organization called the League of The South, and ended with, "The Conservative Movement is dead. Let the Secession Movement begin!" 

      I first heard of the League of the South a decade ago and had hoped it was only a passing bit of random lunacy. It saddens me to think that this brand of Neanderthal is still among us. The organization is in a few states now and bears watching. For now at least, it is safe to say that the Republican Party is one in crisis and those among them who try to make a reasoned argument for small government and less tax are being drowned out by the radicals. Is this secession idea what happens to members of Tea party, when their music stops?

    



League of The South Pushes Separatist Views
http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/091001/met_7240080.html


Southern Poverty Law Center Information on the League of The South
http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-files/groups/league-of-the-south

Florida: Potential Powerhouse in 2016

     So close, but with the four-day-long vote count now over, the President is re-confirmed and I missed a perfect record for my predictions by one state. I have since had myself hung, drawn and quartered, and boiled in oil (mostly for it's slimming effects.) Polls were close right up to the day before the election but, with Florida having a governor, a senator, and nineteen of its twenty-five members of congress all Republicans, to say nothing of the GOP majority in both houses of it's state legislature, giving the edge to the elephants seemed to make sense.What made the difference? What did I miss? The Sunshine State backed Obama in 2008 but, was that any indication of what this year's vote? Who can say?
     With one of the most diverse demographics in the country including liberal retirees from New England and conservative Cuban Americans, it can be politically very fickle. To make the situation even more interesting, a potential presidential candidate is manifesting itself in the form of Republican Senator Marco Rubio. Florida has been making headlines since 2000 and it is only going to get worse. This state will be the one to watch in 2016.

Marco Rubio Heads to Iowa. 2016 Starting Already?
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/rubio-heads-to-iowa-2016-starting-already/

Sanitized For Your Protection

Have been looking around the web and found almost no coverage of Lemmy's comments in the States. In fact all I've have seen to indicate any mention of his observations is a highly edited version carried by the Huffington Post. It is ironic that a country so concerned with free speech is so afraid of "dirty" words.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2012/nov/06/lemmy-mitt-romney#start-of-comments

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/motorhead-mitt-romney-monster-lemmy-kilmister_n_2081646.html

The Transition to “Oh, THAT Guy.”

     Imagine Wednesday morning, November 7^th, and Mitt Romney will desperately want to hide under the covers once the final numbers tell the tale. When many are sitting down to coffee and corn flakes, Mr. Romney will dine on a cold, slightly lumpy bowl of defeat. So begins his metamorphosis from candidate of the moment into “Oh, THAT guy” or OTG. Once elections have passed, defeated candidates usually fade from the public consciousness to be remembered by most not as Governor Smith or Senator Jones, but only as “that guy” who lost.  Imagine future conversations you may have about this election, as people try to remember exactly the unsuccessful candidate you are referring to, there will usually come that moment of clarity where someone remembers and says, “Oh, THAT guy.”
    An example? Two guys are in the pub; Bob says to Fred, “This reminds me of that Texas billionaire who ran as an independent years ago.” Fred looks confused, “Who?” “Oh, you remember, the little short guy with the nasally voice,” Bob says, “What was his name; was it Perot?” To which Fred replies, “Oh, THAT guy!”

The primary season is particularly good at assigning candidates to OTG status. Remember all of those household names from just a year ago? Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain? Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer? Surely you must remember good old Tim Pawlenty? No? I kinda thought you wouldn’t. Often people don’t immediately recognize a losing candidate’s name without a prompt. Just imagine this conversation for an example: you ask, “Hey James, do you remember Rick Perry?” I ask, “Who?” “You know, Perry was the Governor of Texas who ran for President last year, right?” “Oh, THAT guy,” comes my reply. See how it works?

Yes, the examples of OTG abound, from Dewitt Clinton and Rufus King in the nineteenth century right up to Michael Dukakis and Bob Dole in the late twentieth century. Tomorrow morning, there will be another name to add to your OTG list. Try this simple exercise: You say, “Remember Mitt Romney?”  “Who,” I ask.  “The guy beaten by Obama back in 2012.” (Everyone join in with me...) “Oh, THAT guy.” See, feels natural, doesn’t it?

After the Hype, a Clear Victory

     In something like thirty-six hours from now, the election will be over and the results will show that after all of the hype, President Obama will enjoy a solid victory. There will be little variance from my initial predictions regarding how the election will play out. However, I must have gotten a bit happy with my red crayons, or wasn't sober when I put Colorado in the red column, because it will doubtless be firmly in Mr. Obama's hands when the smoke clears. Dreamer that I am, I was counting on the shift in North Carolina's demographics, considering the influx of liberal intellectuals in the research triangle to give Obama the edge, though most polls show the Tar Heel state leaning to Romney. Regardless, with these intellectuals and a growing Latino community clashing with the conservative norms of the Old South, North Carolina will prove to be an interesting state to follow in the years to come. Finally, the GOP will not carry Massachusetts, and has there ever been a recent election where the winner did not carry their home state?  So, admitting that I was asleep when I put Colorado in red and that I am probably wrong in my hopes for North Carolina, here is the final score:

Obama 303 Electoral College Votes

Romney 235 Electoral College Votes.

A Greater Threat Than Boko Haram

     A story recently ran in the Guardian proclaiming that a terrorist group operating in Nigeria may be interested in pursuing peace talks. Whilst the terror perpetrated by Boko Haram is a significant and credible threat, a quiet cancer is eating away at the fiber of Nigerian society. Political corruption is rampant in Nigeria. Wages are deliberately kept low, whilst bureaucrats and big  business attain wealth at a rate bordering on the obscene. Nigeria is a potential powerhouse of numerous natural resources, chiefly: gas, gold, and oil. The potential for terror cannot be ignored, but more attention needs to be focused on  bribery, and corporate greed that are crippling Nigeria. If the Western powers fail to exercise their influence to curtail the rampant corruption, the appeal of anti-establishment groups like Boko Haram will only continue to grow.

Like to learn more? Check these related links:
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18245866
 http://allafrica.com/stories/201208150419.html
 http://www.businessinsider.com/the-scope-of-corruption-in-nigerian-oil-is-truly-horrifying-2012-10
 http://www.bribenigeria.com/

More News Than Just "Frankenstorm"

As you would imagine, Hurricane Sandy is the lead story in the NY Times, Washington Post, CBS, and NBC. We are in no way detracting from concern over the loss of life and property experienced. However, there are other noteworthy events going on around the world as well. Just wanted to tip everyone off about a blurb in the AP which, so far as I can tell has only been picked up by ABC (though not a main story)and Israel's Haaretz newspaper. Seems that Iran is conducting military exercises near its border with Iraq, a provocative action that has potentially far reaching implications for the region. Particularly so with an increasingly anxious Israel that appears to be looking for an excuse for an attack on Iran.

Election 2012-The View from Europe

It’s no secret that American voters are traditionally more concerned with bread and butter issues than with foreign policy. However, American dependence on foreign oil and consumable goods, as well as indebtedness to foreign creditors demands that Americans conduct their affairs with a view toward their role as a member of an international community. Many here in Europe are watching the coming election with considerable interest. Talking to my co-workers, friends, and total strangers at the coffee shop, I find that people here generally respect and admire President Obama. His trip to the United Kingdom was a resounding success, while the PR mistakes of Governor Romney’s trip abroad left many questioning his suitability for the Oval Office. When Americans elect unsuitable candidates to the nation’s highest office, other countries take this as evidence that the average American is either ignorant or openly inconsiderate of the international implications. Growing the American economy is tremendously important in this election, but no less important is the need for rebuilding international trust, respect, and confidence in the American government. With the Invasion of Iraq, the failure to discover weapons of mass destruction there, and a general mistrust and malaise in the wake of two wars, our international prestige plummeted. Only now are the member nations of the global community beginning to trust America again. Instilling a positive perception is crucially important to U.S. national security, as this will determine how it's allies, as well as enemies, conduct policy with regard to America. The world needs to know that Americans can look beyond sound bites and party politics as usual to elect a president capable of sound judgment and diplomatic savvy. The only man capable of doing so in this race is President Obama. In the minds of many in Europe and around the globe, his re-election will send a clear signal that Americans are a people interested in more than its own well-being, but in securing its role as a global partner in growth, progress, and peace.

Hurrah For America's Paralympic Heroes! (Coverage Not Available)

The television networks aren’t offering coverage of the Paralympics and few if any of the major newspapers have much to say on the subject. To it’s credit, the Washington Post ran a very good human interest story on a former Naval officer competing in the swimming events, but that has been about it. Don't look for front page coverage in the major New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas or L.A.papers. It isn’t there. It is impossible to believe a people who so value courage and sacrifice as Americans do are not interested in supporting athletes like Gold medalists Joseph Berenyi or Mallory Weggeman. (I will let you do your own internet search to find out what they had to overcome to achieve their Paralympic dreams.) However, if you read their stories and aren’t inspired, you are probably dead and no one bothered to tell you. Other American athletes have not yet taken medals, but are in London competing after surviving motorcycle accidents, avalanches, comas and disease, and a host of other challenges. No, the problem cannot be that Americans aren’t interested in supporting these incredible people. Rather, it is an unwilling media, who have labeled these games as spectacle and not sport. Has some panel of executives and yes-men deemed the games as not glamorous or sexy enough, or that there isn’t enough marketing data to show Americans are interested? Such a shame that instead of giving America's young people a new generation of heroes, we have only another example of how an allegedly free press determines the news it chooses to report and not what we deserve to hear.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

After the show biz glitz off the convention, it is time to get back to the reality at hand. States that have voted consistently red or consistently blue will continue to do. This election will be won or lost in Florida, Ohio, Virgina, and North Carolina. There are a few pundits out there who have made this point. What no one has bothered to point out is that, Mitt Romney has to win all four of these to succeed and not even the most generous observers can see that happening.

My 2012 Predictions By State

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays the projections of the sender and does not reflect the opinions of 270toWin.

Birds, Mice, and the Pitfalls of Heathrow Expansion.

Tory backbencher Tim Yeo's comments this week calling for the PM to show some leadership on the issue of expanding Heathrow were an encouraging sign that not all in the Nasty party have completely lost touch with reality and, whilst Boris Johnson's idea for a Thames Estuary airport isn't necessarily a bad one, there are still question about the plan to be answered including the possablity of bird strikes that can can bring down an airliner as easily as any missile. The question of safety must supersede all else. Part of any strategy in preventing potential bird strikes includes replacing lost wetlands habitat to divert waterfowl and other birds from the proposed new airport but, this will require further study all the while London would continue to fall further and further behind in the quest to maintain our position as the dominant transportation hub for Europe. Ultimately, Mr Johnson's plan is one well ahead of it's time and requires a great deal of study before it can be safely implemented. The most plausible solution with the most immediate potential to grow the economy is of course building the third runway. So the glaring questions remain: will we see if the resident of Number 10 has the courage to reverse course and vote for the Heathrow expansion or will will he pursue the safe course and defer the decision to a future Government? Bit of cheese, Mr Cameron?

Matt Bissonette-The Next Reality T.V. Star!

The conservative news network named for a certain bushy-tailed member of the Vulpes genus has named the author of the new SEAL book. Fox News has revealed a former SEAL, Matt Bissonette, is the author and as predicted, those in the SEAL community are already using terms of affection like "traitor" at the mention of his name. From what has leaked out, Bissonette claims that Osama Bin Laden was unarmed when he was shot, that SEALS gathered around his body and shot until he stopped moving, that a SEAL colleague sat on the body during part of the return to base, that President Obama is unpopular among the SEALs, and that the author compared Vice-President Biden to a "...drunken uncle at a Christmas party" for telling a bunch of lame jokes at a White House award ceremony; a crime for which nearly every politician is guilty. The media loves to report controversy and scandal when none exists. Such is the case here. If Bin Laden was shot before or after he ducked into that room, if the SEALs could articulate that they had reason to believe he posed a threat to their safety or the safety of the public through any number of means (access to firearms, ability to detonate explosives, the capability to order his confederates to attack, or simply to prevent his escape) they would be clear to act. Even while Bin Laden lay on the floor with their weapons trained upon him, if they could articulate they believed at the time that he still had the capacity to cause them harm or the possibility of escape, they would be clear to act. Military use of force training typically covers all these points in some fashion. However, as he was the mastermind behind the mass murder of thousands of innocent people, does anyone really care if he was armed, precisely when has shot, or how many times he was shot? No? Neither do I. Admittedly, some hardliners might find fault that the body of Bin Laden could have been afforded more dignity. Never have been a Special Ops guy, but I understand this sort of thing is a common practice, so this is not an earth-shaking revelation. As for the other points, so long as they follow orders, service people are entitled to their opinions of the Chief Executive and his Vice-President, though they are not allowed to openly, or in any official capacity, disparage the Commander-in-Chief. All in all, this is a non-story. If Bissonette, has managed to commit anything classified to paper, he will be sunk, but I doubt even he would have been that stupid. More likely, the book won't offer names and details and will merely rely on procedure and machismo as it ambles toward the final chapter. The establishment's spin machine will probably diminish Bissonaette’s relevance and dismiss the book, which will simply fade out of sight. After the SEAL's identity was revealed, photos of him immediately surfaced and one internet comment noted that a quick internet search revealed a great deal of information about him and details about his family. Slowly my contempt for him has given way to pity. If the book sought to right some perceived wrong, I might respect his motives but, at this stage it seems to be purely about profit. As one internet ad offers the book at just under five dollars, I have to ask if, considering the huge loss of trust among his former colleagues and many in the public at large, the endangerment of himself and his family; is any amount of profit is worth it? For Bissonette's sake I hope so.

The New SEAL book, "No Easy Day."

Esprit de corps and discretion are fundamental to the SEALs. The loyalty and trust these men place in one another are hard-won and form the basis of an extremely close-knit community with bonds that last to the grave. It is unlikely that a member of such a community would write this sort of thing. Even if the writer managed to escape prosecution for publishing a tell-all book about secret missions, (He wouldn’t.) his reputation among the very small special operations fraternity would be absolutely ruined once he was found out and any fellowship with them would come to an immediate end. It is difficult to believe that any member of such a community that places loyalty and honour above their own lives would sacrifice his integrity and his ties to the SEAL community for the potential of a fast profit. You’ll soon be able to find this in the bargain bin next to the unsold copies of Justin Bieber’s biography. As the identities are kept secret whilst they are alive, my guess is that the author writing as Mark Owen was never an operator. The only way to verify his credentials is for him to go public (something he is unlikely to do) or to simply take the word of his co-author. My guess is that “Mark Owen” is actually a composite of the many operators and conventional soldiers the co-author, Kevin Maurer has interviewed and backed up by intensive research into SEAL training and tactics. To his credit, Maurer has worked as an embedded reporter with some units that have seen fierce combat and has written some fairly good military themed books. This could be an accurate account of what probably happened, but I am still a bit sceptical about why a SEAL would be directly involved in Maurer’s latest book.

Rape and the Right-wing.

To quickly review, rape is bad. To elaborate, no means no, if the victim is unconscious, he (yes conservatives, men can be raped, too) or she cannot give consent, it constitutes rape, and sex does not have to be consensual to result in pregnancy. Oh, and while we are on the subject, jokes and good ol’ boy comments about rape are made at the peril of those who tell them. Perhaps I am a bit unsophisticated, but I can’t remember the last good rape joke I heard, can you? There is no lighter side to sexual assault. Just a few handy hints to keep in mind. Occasionally, those on the right just cannot seem to resist the urge to say patently stupid things about rape and somehow manage to alienate people with their position on a topic that is otherwise pretty much settled in the minds of all but the rapists themselves and the occasional idiot politician. Republican Congressman Todd Akin’s comments regarding rape make him only the latest in the GOP to espouse a 16th century outlook on the matter of sexual assault. First, there was 1990 Texas gubernatorial candidate Clayton Williams. On a cold and overcast day, Williams dismissed an impending storm as being like getting raped. “If it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it,” the alleged human told an assembled crowd of ranch hands and reporters. [1] Or take for example the late North Carolina State Representative Henry Aldridge, a Republican and staunch anti-abortionist. During a fight over eliminating state funding for abortions among the states’ poor, Aldridge pronounced that, “The facts show that people who are raped-truly raped-the juices don’t flow, the body functions don’t work and they don’t get pregnant.” [2] If Todd Akins’s comments were made decades ago, they could be explained away as simple ignorance. However, in the modern age, with so much information so readily available, his words must surely be nothing less than the kind of blinding lack of compassion so common to the right-wing, a sad tradition that is unlikely to go away in our lifetime. What do you think? Post a comment. [1] The AP, “Texas Candidate’s Comment About Rape Causes Furor,” New York Times, March 26, 1990, accessed 22 August, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/1990/03/26/us/texas-candidate-s-comment-about-rape-causes-a-furor.html [2] Wire Reports, “NC Legislator Says Rape Victims Don’t Get Pregnant,” Mount Airy News, April 21, 1995, accessed 22 August, 2012, http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=5eU_AAAAIBAJ&sjid=X1gMAAAAIBAJ&pg=6720,2257940&dq=