The GOP SitRep.

A poll taken at this weekend's conservative Political Action Committee Conference in Washington, DC, the most recent of all the polls yet taken showed Texas Representative Ron Paul winning with 30% of the vote, and former Massachusetts Governor Mit Romney coming in second with 23%. No other candidates finished out of single digits including former House Speaker Newton Leroy Gingrich with 5%,former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty with 4%, and tea party diva Sarah "Lookit! That there is Russia, you betcha." Palin with an impressive 3%. Ten thousand people attended the conference and less than half of the attendees(3,742) bothered to take part in the poll. Talk show host and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee finished with 2%. Haley Barbour walked away with 1%, finishing just ahead of the guy outside parking cars.

Romney came in first in recent straw polls conducted in Michigan and New Hampshire, while finishing second (18%) behind Mike Huckabee (22%) in an Iowa poll conducted in August of last year. The reality is that straw polls have as much bearing on the election as the NFL preseason does on the Super Bowl, but politicians deem them necessary and consider them heavily when determining to declare candidacies or to end them based on poor showing.
If I am drawing any conclusions from the results so far it is that, my earlier convictions are unchanged and Romney is the likely GOP nominee. Ron Paul, is far too radical to be be electable to a nationwide audience. Others to be put in the "Why are they bothering?" category have to be Newt Gingrich, and Haley Barbour. I could wax intellectual of the myriad reasons for their lack of viability, but either could win a Jerry Falwell lookalike contest, which makes either one a difficult product to market in the the twenty-first century. I will make one further observation: much farther down the road, SC Republican Senator Jim De Mint as a running mate is a good way for Romney to shore up his weakness in the south. Stay tuned.

Read about the polls at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/us/politics/13cpac.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/22/mitt-romney-new-hampshire-poll

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/01/28/Romney-leads-2012-Michigan-GOP-poll/UPI-22501296233009/

http://theiowarepublican.com/home/2010/08/16/huckabee-leads-2012-iowa-caucus-poll-%E2%80%93-palin-finishes-fourth-behind-newt/